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A Markov Decision Process Framework for Early Maneuver Decisions in Satellite Collision Avoidance

Ferrara, Francesca, Arana, Lander W. Schillinger, Dörfler, Florian, Li, Sarah H. Q.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

ABSTRACT We develop a Markov decision process (MDP) framework to autonomously make guidance decisions for satellite collision avoidance maneuver (CAM) and a reinforcement learning policy gradient (RL-PG) algorithm to enable direct optimization of guidance policy using historic CAM data. In addition to maintaining acceptable collision risks, this approach seeks to minimize the average propellant consumption of CAMs by making early maneuver decisions. We model CAM as a continuous state, discrete action and finite horizon MDP, where the critical decision is determining when to initiate the maneuver. By deciding to maneuver earlier than conventional methods, the Markov policy effectively favors CAMs that achieve comparable rates of collision risk reduction while consuming less propellant. Using historical data of tracked conjunction events, we verify this framework and conduct an extensive parameter-sensitivity study. When evaluated on synthetic conjunction events, the trained policy consumes significantly less propellant overall and per maneuver in comparison to a conventional cut-off policy that initiates maneuvers 24 hours before the time of closest approach (TCA). On historical conjunction events, the trained policy consumes more propellant overall but consumes less propellant per maneuver. For both historical and synthetic conjunction events, the trained policy is slightly more conservative in identifying conjunctions events that warrant CAMs in comparison to cutoff policies.


Towards Optimal Valve Prescription for Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR) Surgery: A Machine Learning Approach

Paschalidis, Phevos, Stoumpou, Vasiliki, Everest, Lisa, Ma, Yu, Azemi, Talhat, Haider, Jawad, Zweibel, Steven, Protopapas, Eleftherios M., Mather, Jeff, Tysarowski, Maciej, Sarris, George E., Hagberg, Robert C., Haronian, Howard L., Bertsimas, Dimitris

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR) has emerged as a minimally invasive treatment option for patients with severe aortic stenosis, a life-threatening cardiovascular condition. Multiple transcatheter heart valves (THV) have been approved for use in TAVR, but current guidelines regarding valve type prescription remain an active topic of debate. We propose a data-driven clinical support tool to identify the optimal valve type with the objective of minimizing the risk of permanent pacemaker implantation (PPI), a predominant postoperative complication. We synthesize a novel dataset that combines U.S. and Greek patient populations and integrates three distinct data sources (patient demographics, computed tomography scans, echocardiograms) while harmonizing differences in each country's record system. We introduce a leaf-level analysis to leverage population heterogeneity and avoid benchmarking against uncertain counterfactual risk estimates. The final prescriptive model shows a reduction in PPI rates of 26% and 16% compared with the current standard of care in our internal U.S. population and external Greek validation cohort, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first unified, personalized prescription strategy for THV selection in TAVR.


Detection and Localization of Subdural Hematoma Using Deep Learning on Computed Tomography

Stoumpou, Vasiliki, Kumar, Rohan, Burman, Bernard, Ojeda, Diego, Mehta, Tapan, Bertsimas, Dimitris

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Background. Subdural hematoma (SDH) is a common neurosurgical emergency, with increasing incidence in aging populations. Rapid and accurate identification is essential to guide timely intervention, yet existing automated tools focus primarily on detection and provide limited interpretability or spatial localization. There remains a need for transparent, high-performing systems that integrate multimodal clinical and imaging information to support real-time decision-making. Methods. We developed a multimodal deep-learning framework that integrates structured clinical variables, a 3D convolutional neural network trained on CT volumes, and a transformer-enhanced 2D segmentation model for SDH detection and localization. Using 25,315 head CT studies from Hartford HealthCare (2015--2024), of which 3,774 (14.9\%) contained clinician-confirmed SDH, tabular models were trained on demographics, comorbidities, medications, and laboratory results. Imaging models were trained to detect SDH and generate voxel-level probability maps. A greedy ensemble strategy combined complementary predictors. Findings. Clinical variables alone provided modest discriminatory power (AUC 0.75). Convolutional models trained on CT volumes and segmentation-derived maps achieved substantially higher accuracy (AUCs 0.922 and 0.926). The multimodal ensemble integrating all components achieved the best overall performance (AUC 0.9407; 95\% CI, 0.930--0.951) and produced anatomically meaningful localization maps consistent with known SDH patterns. Interpretation. This multimodal, interpretable framework provides rapid and accurate SDH detection and localization, achieving high detection performance and offering transparent, anatomically grounded outputs. Integration into radiology workflows could streamline triage, reduce time to intervention, and improve consistency in SDH management.


A Digital Twin Framework for Generation-IV Reactors with Reinforcement Learning-Enabled Health-Aware Supervisory Control

Lim, Jasmin Y., Pylorof, Dimitrios, Garcia, Humberto E., Duraisamy, Karthik

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generation IV (Gen-IV) nuclear power plants are envisioned to replace the current reactor fleet, bringing improvements in performance, safety, reliability, and sustainability. However, large cost investments currently inhibit the deployment of these advanced reactor concepts. Digital twins bridge real-world systems with digital tools to reduce costs, enhance decision-making, and boost operational efficiency. In this work, a digital twin framework is designed to operate the Gen-IV Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor, utilizing data-enhanced methods to optimize operational and maintenance policies while adhering to system constraints. The closed-loop framework integrates surrogate modeling, reinforcement learning, and Bayesian inference to streamline end-to-end communication for online regulation and self-adjustment. Reinforcement learning is used to consider component health and degradation to drive the target power generations, with constraints enforced through a Reference Governor control algorithm that ensures compliance with pump flow rate and temperature limits. These input driving modules benefit from detailed online simulations that are assimilated to measurement data with Bayesian filtering. The digital twin is demonstrated in three case studies: a one-year long-term operational period showcasing maintenance planning capabilities, short-term accuracy refinement with high-frequency measurements, and system shock capturing that demonstrates real-time recalibration capabilities when change in boundary conditions. These demonstrations validate robustness for health-aware and constraint-informed nuclear plant operation, with general applicability to other advanced reactor concepts and complex engineering systems.







A Theorem Proofs

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this section, we present the proofs to the theorems introduced in the main paper. The proof to Theorem 2 is presented as follows. Consider a classification task where the loss function is the cross entropy loss. This approximately holds for many applications with over-parameterized neural predictors. In this case, we have the following theorem: Theorem 3. If Equations (18) and (19) hold, that This contradicts with Equation (23).